When economists talk about predicting the business cycle, they usually turn to well-worn indicators like GDP growth rates, consumer confidence indexes, and employment figures. But a recent analytical study by IP Australia throws a surprising contender into the mix: trade mark applications.
According to IP Australia’s research note Evaluating Trade Marks as a Leading Economic Indicator of the Australian Business Cycle (2024),[1] trade mark filings in Australia don’t just mirror the health of the economy—they actually predict it. The study found that the number of trade mark applications is a strong leading indicator of economic growth, outperforming many traditional metrics. In fact, among 24 key economic indicators, trade mark filings ranked 6th in their ability to predict recessions, beating out heavyweights like the consumer confidence index and even current GDP figures.
More than just paperwork: why trade marks signal what’s next
At first glance, trade mark applications might seem like dry legal paperwork. But look closer, and they tell a story of business confidence and future planning. Companies don’t file trade mark applications unless they are preparing to launch new products, enter new markets, or expand their services. In other words, a spike in trade mark activity signals that businesses are gearing up for growth.
Trade marks also have a broader economic function. They help businesses differentiate their products, communicate quality, and build brand loyalty. By protecting trade marks, businesses can more confidently invest in marketing and innovation, knowing they have legal safeguards. This dynamic helps to fuel competition, drive productivity, and ultimately, lift economic performance.
In many ways, trade marks are the quiet scaffolding behind every visible success story. Every booming product line, every service that captures public attention—each is anchored by strategic trade mark decisions made quarters earlier. This is why trade mark filings are not lagging reflections but proactive signals.
Their value lies in foresight. When businesses stake a claim on a name or logo, they are signalling intent—intent to carve out space in crowded markets, to defend that space vigorously, and to scale. Trade marks are, in effect, declarations of future battles and future wins.
But beyond signals, there is a deeper truth: trade marks are assets—real, powerful, and often undervalued. They are the vessels that carry reputation, customer trust, and market identity. They appreciate as businesses grow, opening doors to licensing, franchising, and even boosting company valuations. In some cases, trade marks become the most valuable part of an enterprise’s balance sheet. And yet, too often, businesses treat them passively, rather than as dynamic assets that deserve regular review, enhancement, and expansion.
Why now is the time for businesses to act
This should be a wake-up call for Australian businesses, especially SMEs and emerging brands. Filing a trade mark application isn’t just a defensive move—it’s a forward-looking growth strategy. It signals to the market (and to investors) that a business is serious about its future plans.
For businesses considering launching a new product, expanding into new regions, or building out their brand portfolio, the data shows there is no better time to act. Trade mark filings are the canary in the coal mine for economic momentum, and businesses that move early by protecting their intellectual property are better positioned to ride the coming wave of growth.
Moreover, trade mark portfolios are no longer back-office assets—they are front-line tools for unlocking new revenue through licensing, brand partnerships, and expansion. In an era where intangible assets drive business valuations, actively filing, managing, and leveraging trade marks should be part of every growth plan.
The numbers don’t lie: trade marks outpace traditional indicators
The study examined more than five decades of Australian trade mark filings, spanning from 1970 to 2023. It cross-referenced these filings with economic indicators and real GDP data. The results were striking: every 10% increase in trade mark applications predicted a 2.7% rise in real GDP within the next two quarters.
Trade mark filings also provided early warning signals for downturns. They dropped significantly during Australia’s early 1990s recession, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and most economic slowdowns, except for an unusual surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, when businesses pivoted to new markets and products in response to the crisis.
More telling still is the breadth of sectors captured. From tech start-ups rolling out disruptive apps to retail brands expanding into wellness lines, the filings create a mosaic of future-facing business bets. This aggregate picture offers a dynamic and current reading of entrepreneurial sentiment.
Trade mark filings pick up the hum of activity before it roars into full market presence. When filings rise in emerging categories—clean energy, digital finance, health tech—they foreshadow the sectors poised for breakout growth. They are subtle tremors that often precede the quake of wider economic change.
Here’s where the fresh insight lands: trade marks don’t just forecast GDP growth—they hint at the shape of that growth. A spike in filings in, say, sustainable technology classes suggests not only an expanding economy but one tilting towards green innovation. A boom in trade marks around wellness and personal care hints at rising consumer preference shifts. This allows savvy observers to anticipate not just when the economy will grow, but where the momentum will cluster.
The hidden pulse of the entrepreneurial economy
While this research zeroes in on Australia, it taps into a broader truth. Similar patterns have been observed in economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Globally, trade mark activity appears to move in tandem with innovation, entrepreneurial activity, and overall economic momentum.
This makes trade mark data a hidden signal, one that cuts across sectors and anticipates where market energy is building up. Unlike patent data, which tends to be concentrated in high-tech sectors, trade marks capture activity in everything from retail and services to health and lifestyle industries. It’s a pulse-check on the broad entrepreneurial economy.
In fact, trade marks can tell us where consumer markets are pivoting before the sales numbers catch up. When filings surge in categories like sustainable goods, health technology, or digital services, they offer a flashpoint of where both capital and talent are flowing.
If patents measure technological promise, trade marks measure commercial ambition. They mark the moment when ideas step into the arena of market competition. They capture not only invention but intention, the will to shape markets and move consumer behaviour. This nuance transforms trade mark data into a tactical tool. Analysts who study the sector composition of new filings can predict not only economic acceleration but sectoral rotation, the subtle shifts where capital exits mature industries and floods into emerging ones.
The investor’s early warning system
For the sharp-eyed investor, trade mark filings offer something even more potent: a real-time intelligence feed on where tomorrow’s growth stories are incubating. This is not backward-looking data—it’s the blueprint of where businesses are placing their bets right now.
Trade mark surges in specific classes often precede venture capital rounds, public listings, and M&A activity. They can be the tell-tale signatures of start-ups preparing to scale, incumbents entering new arenas, and entire industries about to pivot.
Investors who monitor filing patterns are not just reading the market, they are reading its future intentions. A swell of filings in artificial intelligence-related classes, for example, can signal an incoming wave of artificial intelligence-driven product launches and services, well before earnings reports catch up.
Moreover, trade mark data allows investors to track not just sectors but geography. An upswing in filings clustered around certain regions can hint at emerging innovation hubs or new hotbeds of entrepreneurial dynamism, critical intel for those deploying capital.
In a landscape where timing and early positioning often spell the difference between outsized returns and missed opportunities, trade mark filings emerge as an underrated, high-frequency signal.
Catch the wave before it crests
For those with an eye on emerging trends, the message is clear: trade mark filings aren’t just legal artifacts—they are leading indicators of where business is headed next. Rising filings suggest an environment ripe for innovation, expansion, and fresh market plays.
And perhaps more importantly, trade mark data is available faster and more frequently than traditional economic reports. In an environment where timing can mean the difference between catching the next wave and missing it, this kind of early signal is invaluable. Those who pay attention to this overlooked metric position themselves ahead of the curve, ready to capitalise on growth markets before they hit the mainstream radar. It’s not just about reacting to economic news but anticipating it with confidence.
Consider this: by the time consumer trends are picked up in retail reports or GDP growth rates, the earliest movers have already filed, built, and launched. Trade marks are the breadcrumbs that lead back to these strategic moves, providing a rare glimpse into the minds of forward-thinking businesses.
The study by IP Australia underscores that intellectual property metrics, often sidelined as secondary data, are in fact frontline indicators of economic vitality. They reflect real-world business moves: investments in new brands, product lines, and market entries that will shape future growth.
The takeaway: tune in and act before the market does
Trade marks may have long been seen as the legal department’s domain, but this study makes a compelling case for elevating them to the strategy table. They are not just brand assets—they are economic indicators, whispering early clues about where the business cycle is headed next.
And more than that, they are growth assets waiting to be unlocked. Businesses that actively manage, refresh, and expand their trade mark portfolios don’t just protect their turf—they increase the enterprise value of their brand. In a marketplace where intangible assets now account for the lion’s share of company worth, trade marks are a foundational pillar.
So whether you are a founder preparing your next product launch, a company eyeing new markets, or an investor scanning for early signals—tune into the trade mark filings. And more critically, join them. Make filing your trade mark part of your growth playbook.
Because in the rhythm of market cycles, those who catch the first beat often write the tune.
[1] Nguyen, K., Yoo, Y., & Falk, M.R. (2024). Evaluating Trade Marks as a Leading Economic Indicator of the Australian Business Cycle. IP Australia Analytical Note 09/2024. Retrieved from https://www.ipaustralia.gov.au/tools-and-research/professional-resources/data-research-and-reports